This is shaping up to be an unusual, and unpredictable, awards season. There are several films in contention for the top prizes when the Academy Awards air in March, and dutiful Oscar pundits have been tracking the recognitions handed out by critics groups and organizations as 2024 drew to a close. Now that we are in January, true bellwethers such as the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Association will shine brighter lights on the frontrunners, but one film in particular took a hit on Sunday night from an organization that I thought would trip over itself to throw trophies – and that’s Wicked, by way of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
The HFPA, for years, has been a bit of a punchline – a lightweight group consisting of less than 100 journalists who notoriously host and attend lavish parties where they wine and dine celebrities, then historically reward the ones that play the awards “game” the best. It has been tough to use the Globes as an indicator for what might win at the Oscars, merely because they divide their competition into Drama and Musical/Comedy, which I thought would give them a clear cut avenue to award Jon M. Chu’s Wicked with a bevy or statues on Sunday night. The blockbuster film was nominated for four Globes, but it only took home one, which I see as a problem.
Which Golden Globe did Wicked win?
So, at the end of the night, Jon M. Chu’s critically acclaimed and crowd-pleasing musical won something called the “Cinematic and Box Office Achievement” award at the Golden Globes. Which, to me, was a lazy category created so the Globes could include titles that people actually paid to go see in the theaters. The 2025 nominees in this category included Deadpool and Wolverine, Twisters, Inside Out 2, and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. They are box office powerhouses, but not exactly films I’d consider to be awards contenders.
Wicked straddled the line. It’s a box-office hit. But I also thought it had the cache to compete for the top prizes with the Academy… and maybe even win a few statues. And that might still happen. But by only winning the “Box Office Achievement” prize, Wicked now wrestles with the narrative that it is a “popcorn” film – to borrow a phrase from The Substance winner Demi Moore – and might not be considered an actual contender by the industry players when compared against the likes of Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, Edward Berger’s religious thriller Conclave, or the majestic Dune: Part 2.
OK, so, Wicked picked up what sounds like a largely made-up award that was created by the Globes to get mainstream audiences to tune in. But there’s another reason why I think the three other losses suffered on Sunday night matter in the grand scheme of the Oscars conversation.
The Globes Have A Separate Musical Category, And Wicked Lost To Another Musical
Because the Golden Globes divide their contenders up, I assumed that Wicked had an easier walk to a victory, and that we’d be talking about it alongside the movie that eventually took Best Motion Picture: Drama (which ended up being The Brutalist). However, it was Netflix’s big player, Emilia Perez, that charmed Globes voters and toppled Wicked – as well as Anora, Challengers, The Substance and A Real Pain in the Musical/Comedy category. Given the popularity of those titles, it’s easy to assume that they all had their factions of awards support, splitting the vote and allowing Emilia Perez to gather the most steam. However it happened, the headlines today are focusing on Jacques Audiard’s bold musical, and not on the Broadway adaptation.
It wasn’t just in the Best Musical/Comedy that Wicked fell short, however. The film’s co-leads, Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, were all over the red carpet coverage. They were involved in several jokes and bits from the stage, including host Nikki Glaser “holding space” for them as she ribbed the audience.
But in their respective categories, Grande and Erivo lost out to Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) and Demi Moore (The Substance). And I think the narratives swirling around those ladies – particularly Moore, when it comes to the Oscars – are growing stronger by the minute, and will only snowball in the wake of these Globes wins.
Is there still time for Wicked to reverse course? Naturally. The Oscars aren’t weeks away. They are MONTHS away. A strong showing at the Critics Choice Awards could put Chu’s musical right back on track. The HFPA doesn’t vote for the Oscars, so they don’t have direct influence in the voting body. All they can do, or the moment, is direct the stream of momentum that’s flowing behind a particular title. On the Monday following the Globes, that Wicked river is running a little dry. But don’t bet against a production that’s accustomed to defying gravity.